Bayesian Data Analysis
In this unit:
- Understand the Bayes Theorem.
- Know the features Bayesian data analysis.
- Describe the strengths of Bayesian data analysis.
- Explain the merit and demerits of Bayesian data analysis.
Baye’s Probability Activity
1. A fair die with faces numbered from 1 to 6 is rolled. Calculate the probability that the die lands with an even number uppermost?
- This is a simple probability question. P = Even outcomes / Total outcomes = 3/6 = 50% probability.
2. Coronary heart disease (CHD) is currently the most common cause of death in the UK. In 2002, of 288 332 male deaths, 64 473 were from CHD, and of 318 463 female deaths, 53 003 were from CHD.
Estimate the following probabilities.
- The probability that a randomly chosen UK man who dies in a future year will die of CHD.
P = CHD deaths/total deaths = 64473/288332 = 22.31%
- The probability that a randomly chosen UK woman who dies in a future year will die of CHD.
P = CHD deaths/total deaths = 53003/318463 = 16.64%
How accurate are your estimates likely to be?
The underlying data is accurate, and the calculations are simple. There is, though, a concern that data from 2002 will be outdated, and there may be significant changes in mortality rates from CHD in the last 23 years. Without that information, though, it is difficult to determine how accurate these calculations will be. More information would be needed to fully determine this answer.